Fresh Updates from RAC

January 27th, known as International Holocaust Remembrance Day, is the date that marks the liberation of Auschwitz. This year, to commemorate the occasion, President Obama said that the United States resolves “…to stay true to the principle of ‘Never Again.’” Now, as Iran races to develop nuclear weapons , we must ask ourselves the question: What have we done to live up to the words, “Never Again”?

As Americans, we can be proud that over the past several years, the U.S. government has instituted increasingly tougher sanctions on Iran.  Today, American companies, including their foreign subsidiaries, are prohibited from doing business in Iran with the exception of the sale of food and medicine. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said of our foreign friends and allies.

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In case you haven’t noticed, my colleague Zach likes to use puns in his blog-posts. But I wonder if I use bomb imagery too much when I think about current events. A story blows up, it explodes. Someone rockets into the news or launches a new campaign. A new development is a bombshell or else it lights a fuse for something else. I worry that such language might obscure the true cost of these weapons, so let’s just say that nuclear weapons have gained a prominent presence in the news lately.

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Most 16 year olds are worried about tests. Most 16 year olds are worried about being accepted by their friends. Most 16 year olds spend long days agonizing about the promise of a drivers license. However, the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, which turns 16 today, is not like most 16 year olds. The tests that it is worried about involve massive explosions with dire health and environmental consequences. The group of friends it’s trying to get in with are the 39 countries that still need to ratify it. And on the CTBT’s 16^th birthday, we see no signs of movement in the United States or abroad.

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty was drafted through the United Nations by numerous countries including the United States. It would ban all future nuclear explosions – in tests and in warfare – and would create an international regulatory regime to monitor the testing of nuclear weapons. Sixteen years ago today, the day the treaty was opened for signatures, 66 countries signed it including the United States and the other four nuclear powers of the day (China, France, the UK and Russia). As of last spring when Indonesia submitted its ratification, a total of 183 states had signed onto the treaty and 157 had ratified it.

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Nuclear negotiations with Iran are “dead in the water,” experts say. The demise of talks comes during the same week that Iran has unveiled plans for a new air defense site and the announcement of its new short-range missile with a range of 180 miles and upgraded hardware. This also comes within days of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s plan to announce a new report, which will indicate that Iran is more and more focused on increasing its enriched uranium to 20% (the “magic number” that nuclear experts claim will allow Iranian nuclear scientists to develop a bomb).

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Low-level diplomatic talks between world powers and Iran have failed, according to Israeli officials. Sunday on Israel Radio, Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon suggested that, if all world powers involved in the talks would collectively declare failure, “it will be clear that all options are on the table.” This comment, referring directly to the threat of a preemptive attack on the Iranian nuclear program, has amplified the rumors that Prime Minister Netanyahu has all but made the final decision to attack Iran unilaterally in the coming months.

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Earlier this week, President Obama met with leaders of 53 other countries at the second Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul, South Korea. This summit followed the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, during which leaders began a campaign to secure vulnerable nuclear materials by the end of 2014.

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Amid the “loose talk of war” over Iran’s potential nuclear weapons program, Israelis and Iranians have tried to speak out for peace and distance themselves from the rhetoric of their leaders. A public opinion survey conducted in Israel showed that only 19% of Israelis believe Israel should strike Iran’s nuclear facilities without the support of the U.S., and 34% think that Israel should not strike Iran under any circumstances. On Saturday, hundreds of Israelis took to the streets of Tel Aviv (with similar rallies in over 15 cities in England) to protest against the possibility of war with Iran.

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President Obama distinguished himself early in his presidency by being the first global leader to call for a nuclear weapons-free world. His leadership in crafting the New START treaty was groundbreaking in further repairing US-Russian relations and taking steps toward global peace. However, as we noted before the State of the Union in January, there had yet to be a significant move toward disarmament since the New START treaty entered into force.

This month President Obama has revitalized his commitment to nuclear disarmament by announcing his consideration of severe cuts to deployed strategic nuclear weapons. The New START treaty mandates that the U.S. arsenal be cut from 5,000 to 1,550, but the Obama Administration is considering three options of even lower weapons levels: 1,000-1,100, 700-800 or 300-400. The final level (300-400) is admirable and seems to be the only option that legitimately brings us closer to a world free of nuclear weapons. Unsurprisingly, experts say the 300-400 level is a “Machiavellian” rhetorical strategy, and they expect that it is just a placeholder to make his ultimate decision seem moderate.

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